Why the Dresden property market looks more expensive than it is

Are the property prices I see online the prices actually paid?

No. What is publicly visible is almost exclusively asking prices, in other words the seller's idea at the start of marketing. The notarised purchase price is created months later and, from my own Dresden transactions, is usually 5 to 10 per cent below it; that is an experience-based figure, not a statistic. The prices actually paid are collected by the city's valuation committee in the purchase price collection, from which the property market report is produced. Anyone deriving their own price from listings is taking their cue from other sellers' wishes, not from the market.

When someone tells me on the phone that the flat next door fetched €320,000, I now ask straight away: fetched or listed? Almost every time the answer is that the figure came from a portal. The neighbour did not receive it, they asked for it.

The Dresden market looks more expensive than it is. Not because anyone is deceiving, but because we all read the same source of figures, and that source does not show what was paid.

The asking price and the sale price are two different numbers

A listing is an opening bid. Between it and the notarised purchase price come viewings, collapsed financing arrangements and, as a rule, several rounds of negotiation. Only the opening is publicly visible; the result goes to the notary and from there into a collection nobody can simply leaf through.

On top of that comes a selection effect that hardly anyone factors in: flats that find no buyer at the wished-for price stay online for a long time and shape the picture. Properties that sell quickly at a realistic price disappear from view within weeks. What you see permanently is offered at above-average prices.

Which side asks the higher prices has been studied nationwide. An analysis of listings between April 2022 and July 2025 shows that private sellers ask on average 9.1 per cent more for flats and 7.3 per cent more for houses than agents do. What was analysed there are asking prices, not completed sales, and both sides end up selling into the same market.

Something else hangs on this distinction: price indices built on listings react earlier and more strongly than reality does. In a downturn, asking prices fall before the first contract is written, because sellers adjust their expectations. Anyone reading a price crash out of that is reading the mood.

Where the gap costs money

The seller who takes their cue from other people's wishes

Anyone deriving their price from portal listings adopts the wishful thinking of other sellers. The starting price is then too high, marketing takes longer, and the eventual sale lands below what a realistic entry would have achieved.

The buyer who believes the market is overheated

Anyone who only sees asking prices believes in a market that excludes them, and never makes an offer. I have seen buyers wait two years because they took the most expensive shelf-warmers as their benchmark.

Where the reliable figures are

The real prices do exist. They are simply less convenient to obtain than a portal search.

The valuation committee's purchase price collection

Every notarised purchase contract in Dresden ends up there. The city's valuation committee analyses them and publishes the property market report from them. Those are prices paid, not prices wished for. Individual enquiries are possible where a legitimate interest is shown.

Standard land values

Official, free of charge and available for Dresden back to 1992. They do not capture the building, but they do capture the land, and they rest on notarised purchase prices rather than on offers.

The agent who knows the completions

Anyone selling regularly knows the difference between the asking price and the completion in their areas. That is not statistics but experience, and it is worth asking for rather than assuming.

What to do with this

For your own pricing it means that a portal price is the starting point for a question, not the answer. The more useful question is not “what are others asking?” but “what was last notarised in this street, and how long did it take?”.

For sellers the practical conclusion is uncomfortable: in my own transactions the realistic entry has more often produced the better result than the ambitious one. Not because a lower price is better, but because a property without a price history has more negotiating room than one that has been reduced three times.

The sentence I say most often

Your property is worth what somebody has paid for it, not what somebody is asking for it. Everything else is an expectation, and no bank finances expectations.

What was really paid in your street

We look at the notarised comparable cases for your location and tell you where your property sits among them. Free and without obligation, even if you do not sell afterwards.

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How comparable cases turn into a value is explained in valuation: the three methods.

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Common questions about asking and purchase prices

What is the difference between the asking price and the purchase price?

The asking price appears in the listing and is set by the seller before a single prospective buyer has seen the property. The purchase price appears in the notarised contract and is the result of negotiation. How far apart the two end up depends mainly on the opening figure: sellers who start realistically have to give less ground later.

Where do I find the prices actually paid in Dresden?

In the purchase price collection held by the valuation committee of the City of Dresden. Every notarised purchase contract ends up there. Published in analysed form, it becomes the property market report. Individual enquiries are possible where a legitimate interest is shown, for instance if you are selling or inheriting. Freely accessible without any application are the official standard land values, which also rest on notarised purchase prices.

Do private sellers list at higher prices than agents?

Yes, on average. A nationwide analysis of listings between April 2022 and July 2025 shows that private sellers ask on average 9.1 per cent more for flats and 7.3 per cent more for houses than agents do. What was analysed there are asking prices, not completed sales. My own conclusion from it: both sell into the same market in the end, so the higher asking price rarely brings the higher proceeds, but usually the longer marketing period.

Why do expensive properties stay visible online for longer?

Because they find no buyer. A realistically priced property disappears from the portals within weeks, an overpriced one stays up for months. The stock you keep running into while searching is therefore skewed upwards. The selection effect works quietly, because it is not about any single listing but about which listings stay visible at all.

Are price indices built on listings useful for my own decision?

As an early indicator yes, as a yardstick for value no. Asking data reacts earlier and more strongly than notarised prices, because sellers adjust their expectations before the first contract is written. For your own pricing you need comparable cases from the purchase price collection, not the trend from advertisements.

How do I find out what was paid in my street?

Through the valuation committee's purchase price collection, or through an agent who sells regularly in your area and knows the completions. Both cost a phone call. Looking at a portal costs nothing but answers a different question, namely what other sellers are hoping for.

Partner & Property Adviser

Robert Kramer

Solution-finder with many years of experience as a management consultant and managing director